Carbon Transition Model for Dutch Industry

Publieke samenvatting / Public summary

The Dutch, fossil intense industrial sector is for geographic and historic reasons relatively large compared to other countries. Dutch emission reduction is therefore to a large extent dependent on the changes that can be made to the industrial sector. And there are many ways to achieve emission reductions in industry but each option has its own (dis)advantages. Hence, the industry is facing major uncertainty, which is even more prominent under the common circumstances (Covid-19). Various stakeholders keep an eye on each other and wait for or expect the other to act first, resulting in inactivity amongst all stakeholders. The consortium partners strongly believe that the Carbon Transition Model holds the promise to reduce uncertainty by facilitating cooperation and integration of expertise, experience and individual visions on potential transition options. The resulting new relations and connections across sectors will re-activate stakeholders to start acting together on the challenges that are staring us in the face. In other words, the consortium aspires to contribute to the acceleration of the deployment of (new) circular carbon value chains in the Netherlands.

In this project we will build a first version of the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) that should allow the user to explore not only what emission reduction options exists, but also understand how they interact and see their impact on the greater Dutch industrial system, taking into account import and export of both energy, feedstock, intermediate and final products. The Carbon Transition Model is designed to: 1. allow structured analysis of transition pathways; 2. let users experience how certain transition options have an effect on the industrial system and carbon flows within, and vice versa; 3. allow for mutual learnings and shared experience to create actionable insights on a level that individual organizations or (sub)sector at their individual level do not have; 4. support multi-stakeholder informed decision making; 5. identify new value chains and sector coupling aimed at reducing carbon emissions; 6. lead to new knowledge and insights to be used for further development and scale up of CCUtechnologies;

Korte omschrijving
The development of CTM will be a joint effort with input from universities, knowledge institutes, consultants, civil society organizations and industry. Together they will define the pathways that need to be taken into account in version one of the CTM. Data will be collected with regards to historic emissions and energy, feedstock and product flows. These data will be integrated in a model that will allow the user to change the historic (validated) base year into a future year with old and new pathways. For every change the user makes, the model will provide instant feedback on key parameters like emissions, volumes and costs. The integrated model will be tested and validated by all consortium partners before publication.

The final deliverable of this project is the Carbon Transition Model.