Assessment in Future Trends in Industrial Hydrogen Demand and Transport

Publieke samenvatting / Public summary

Since the Paris climate agreement, countries are actively striving towards a sustainable future. According to the climate and energy framework of European Commission, EU countries are supposed to cut their GHG emissions by; 40% in 2030 and 80-95% in 2050 as compared to 1990 levels . The Dutch government is still deliberating where to invest, and how best to achieve our environmental goals over the coming years. And so are many industries that see the necessity to transform and adapt themselves for future reality.
Hydrogen is important for this transition. The goal of this project is to explore the expected industrial demand (size & locations) of hydrogen and directly derived energy carriers in the Netherlands as well as North-Western Europe. The primary focus lies on the industry sector where the demand will be projected to 2050. Additionally, the expected adoption of hydrogen will be studied in adjacent sectors: built environment, mobility, and power. Further focus will lie on the potential use of existing infrastructure against market demand.

Assessment of the current state and future trends: Projecting demand for H2 in industry and understanding the current and projected available infrastructure to accommodate these needs. Here we will need an understanding of not only how much H2 will be in demand, but also the implications of competing energy carriers in meeting that demand for various applications. In this respect implications (cost and impacts associated with conversion for downstream processes) are assessed in the current state. The impact of future trends will be assessed via a limited number of future scenarios. The research question is: What is the potential future demand of climate-neutral and renewable hydrogen energy carriers?

Korte omschrijving
The project is structured into 6 phases. Phase 1 will focus on identifying current H2 demand and infrastructure as well as options for future H2 demand. The key focus will lie on industry, built environment, and mobility sectors for various hydrogen carriers. During phase 2, we would interview key stakeholders that are explicitly involved in the demand/supply/distribution network for H2 and other fuels which could be future energy as well as non-energy feedstock carriers. Phases 3 and 4 will focus on quantifying the H2 demand under various scenarios using ETM and IN2050 models. Thereafter during phase 5, we will analyse the consequences on infrastructure and cluster effects to meet the future demand. Finally, we will report our findings in phase 6. The project will be carried forward in close-cooperation with other parallel projects under the ISPT’s Energy Carriers and Supply Chain program. To enrich the results of the various phases, we have planned 3 workshops where key stakeholders including Royal Vopak, Gasunie, PoR and Stedin (industrial partners within the ISPT network) will participate.

This project focuses on 2 key attributes of H2 energy carriers: demand projection and infrastructure consequences. The results that we envisage are-
• Phase 1 will include a literature review of present and future industrial H2 demand, infrastructure, and distribution in NL & NW Europe. To assess the projection of high-potential-demand-case, a generic impression (volume and location) for built environment and mobility will be included.
• Phase 2 will provide additional information by collecting market and expert opinions.
• Phases 3 & 4 will result into story lines and assumptions for 2 scenarios towards 2050 (apart from business as usual); in these scenarios the role of H2 will be depicted to achieve decarbonisation.
• Phases 5 & 6 will describe the potential key geographical locations of both existing infrastructure and likely H2 demand centres. Depending on scenario results, the consequences for the infrastructure from initial hydrogen transport to use of natural gas pipelines is analysed..
The results of different phases will be reviewed by the involved stakeholders.