PROB-RunUp
Application of probabilistic modelling for reduction of uncertainties in wave RUN-UP loads on horizo
Publieke samenvatting / Public summary
Aanleiding
Accurate prediction of wave run-up and the resulting impact loads on platforms mounted on monopiles remains a major challenge in offshore wind design. Even under similar wave conditions, measured run-up heights and vertical loads can vary significantly, exposing gaps in current empirical and numerical design methods. This uncertainty often leads to conservative design margins, increased material use, and higher costs for monopile foundations.
Doelstelling
To address this, the project aims to develop and validate a probabilistic framework that quantifies the relationship between wave characteristics and vertical wave run-up loads on horizontal platforms attached to monopiles. Unlike traditional deterministic approaches, this framework will incorporate uncertainty and variability, enabling designers to assess the likelihood of extreme loads under given environmental conditions. Such insights are essential for creating more efficient, reliable, and certifiable offshore wind landing platform designs.
Korte omschrijving
The project builds on the ongoing JIP Run-Up initiative (2025/2026), led by Deltares in collaboration with Van Oord and Vattenfall, which investigates the physical and numerical aspects of wave run-up. By leveraging existing knowledge and datasets, this project will focus on creating generic building blocks which will serve as a foundation for future design tools and guidelines.
Resultaat
Ultimately, the results will help reduce design uncertainty, support certification frameworks, and strengthen the Dutch offshore wind sector's position as a leader in innovative and cost-effective design practices.
Accurate prediction of wave run-up and the resulting impact loads on platforms mounted on monopiles remains a major challenge in offshore wind design. Even under similar wave conditions, measured run-up heights and vertical loads can vary significantly, exposing gaps in current empirical and numerical design methods. This uncertainty often leads to conservative design margins, increased material use, and higher costs for monopile foundations.
Doelstelling
To address this, the project aims to develop and validate a probabilistic framework that quantifies the relationship between wave characteristics and vertical wave run-up loads on horizontal platforms attached to monopiles. Unlike traditional deterministic approaches, this framework will incorporate uncertainty and variability, enabling designers to assess the likelihood of extreme loads under given environmental conditions. Such insights are essential for creating more efficient, reliable, and certifiable offshore wind landing platform designs.
Korte omschrijving
The project builds on the ongoing JIP Run-Up initiative (2025/2026), led by Deltares in collaboration with Van Oord and Vattenfall, which investigates the physical and numerical aspects of wave run-up. By leveraging existing knowledge and datasets, this project will focus on creating generic building blocks which will serve as a foundation for future design tools and guidelines.
Resultaat
Ultimately, the results will help reduce design uncertainty, support certification frameworks, and strengthen the Dutch offshore wind sector's position as a leader in innovative and cost-effective design practices.